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The Indian rupee experienced its strongest single-day gain since June, closing at 84.2875 against the US dollar, up 0.2%. This surge was driven by dollar inflows from MSCI's global equity index rebalancing, alongside a weaker dollar and declining US bond yields. The dollar index fell 0.5% to 106.8, while the 10-year Treasury yield dropped 7 basis points to 4.34%.
U.S. Treasury yields fell as investors reacted positively to President-elect Trump's Treasury secretary pick, Scott Bessent, calming concerns about the economy. Bessent's nomination has led to lower bond yields, higher equity indices, and a weaker dollar, with markets now focused on upcoming inflation data ahead of Thanksgiving. Key economic indicators, including the PCE price index, are anticipated to provide insights into the Federal Reserve's policy direction.
Mario Centeno, a member of the European Central Bank Governing Council, warned against any US efforts to abandon enhanced bank capital rules, suggesting such a move would backfire. He emphasized that Europe should adhere to Basel III unless it proves counterproductive, urging caution in the face of potential regulatory shifts.
Major U.S. indexes ended the week positively, with small- and mid-cap stocks outperforming larger counterparts despite declines in tech giants like Nvidia and Alphabet. The Russell 2000 rose 4.5%, reflecting a shift in investor focus towards cyclical sectors and smaller companies. Meanwhile, the People’s Bank of China maintained its lending rate, and developed nations pledged $300 billion annually to combat climate change at COP29.
Paper losses on domestic bonds held by Japan’s four major life insurers have surged to ¥4.622 trillion ($30 billion) as of September, more than doubling from ¥2.051 trillion in March due to rising interest rates. Although there has been a partial recovery from June's ¥5.507 trillion, the significant deficits raise concerns about the insurers' ability to meet their liabilities.
Axis Securities has identified an oversold market as a long-term investment opportunity, despite a 1.5% cut in Nifty 50 earnings projections for FY25. With over 60% of NSE 500 stocks down more than 20% from their highs, the firm recommends focusing on growth at a reasonable price and quality investments.The recent political stability in Maharashtra, following the BJP-led Mahayuti alliance's significant electoral victory, is expected to boost market sentiment. This comes amid a challenging period for the Indian equity market, marked by foreign institutional investor selling and disappointing earnings.
Saudi Arabia's ambitious Vision 2030 projects, including the $1.5 trillion NEOM initiative, face scrutiny as the kingdom shifts focus to domestic investments amid rising deficits and lower oil revenues. Despite a projected budget deficit of $21.1 billion for 2024, officials assert that non-oil revenues now cover 37% of expenditures, indicating a commitment to fiscal discipline and economic diversification. However, skepticism remains regarding the feasibility of mega-projects, with some analysts predicting potential cutbacks to ensure sustainability.
Russian food prices are surging, with inflation hitting 8.5% in October, driven by supply shortages and increased production costs linked to the ongoing war in Ukraine. Basic items like butter have seen price hikes of up to 30%, prompting thefts and forcing consumers to downgrade their purchases. Despite the economic strain, public criticism of the government remains muted, as propaganda continues to deflect blame onto "unfriendly" countries.
European stocks opened higher, with the Stoxx 600 index up 0.5%, led by gains in household goods and autos. In Asia-Pacific, Australia's S&P/ASX 200 reached a record high, while Japan's Nikkei rose 1.3%. Meanwhile, Atos received a non-binding offer from the French government for its advanced computing activities, and UniCredit proposed acquiring Banco BPM for about €10 billion.
AUD/USD rose to 0.6525, buoyed by stabilizing commodity prices and the appointment of Scott Bessent as US Treasury secretary by President-elect Trump. The US dollar weakened against several currencies, while upcoming economic events include the October CPI release and a speech by RBA Governor Michelle Bullock. Recent Australian inflation data showed a slight decline, with expectations for the October CPI to rise by 2.3% YoY, amid ongoing government cost-of-living rebates.
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